October 23, 2008
Obama 2

1) Sooo I take it back about "none of the votes Clinton is getting in this primary would be lost in the general." I know of about 3 staunch democrats on my block (in Fishtown, a mostly white, working class, in the process of yuppification [see: yours truly] area of Philadelphia on the outskirt side of center city and the center city side of the outskirts) who are voting McCain. One is my neighbor's husband who was really bummed out by what amounts to the Wright controversy during the primary. Two are a couple in a house down the street who have a big ol' "Another Democrat for McCain" sign and some "Polish Americans for McCain Palin" signs up, as well as the following three photos taped to their storm door: Obama in "muslim garb", Obama in muslim-y headdress standing at a lectern (same photo opp I'm guessing), Obama with his hands folded as others stand with their hands over their hearts. (During the national anthem, though it's been disseminated as "during the pledge of Allegiance.") The lady who lives there is really nice, she loves my dog and chats with me regularly. shrug.

2) People are all thinkin' PA is safe and I am not one of them. Perhaps it is the proximity of these neighbors and walking past that house every day. But also it's the fact that McCain has telegraphed that he's about to hit this state hard, and I can't imagine that all of Obama's support here is rock solid.

3) I love my youth vote but I remember when I was 18 being really (above average-ally) excited to vote and maybe not actually getting around to actually mailing in my absentee ballot. The 20 somethings I talk to at the dog park seem to believe this thing is sewn up and that makes me nervous for turnout. Hopefully the togetherness of the Millennials combined with the historic nature of the election combined with Obama's superior ground game means we're in good shape. I am scared to death to believe polls.

4) I think the Bradley effect is bullshit and wish people would stop talking about it. Here's one on what actually happened in the eponymous race and how polling stopped before the momentum stopped swinging. And here's one on why there's a different dynamic at work in this race anyway if you do buy into the original bradley effect (and yes, also how his NH loss is explicable beyond some sort of 'secret racists' theory).

5) Hey remember that time I said I was gonna start writing more often? OMG I was so earnest about it! It's like I actually believed I would! Adorable.

Thunk at 09:29 AM

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